2. Let's say you're in a shed surrounded by ravenous velociraptors who keep throwing themselves at the door, but not quite breaking in.
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1. Disagree w reporting on the Graham-Cassidy ACA repeal bill premised on "meh, GOP need 50 votes and they're still a vote or two short NBD"
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3. Do you say, "Meh, they're not quite strong enough to break in, no big deal?" No. You do not. You hammer 2x4s onto the door to reinforce.
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4. If you're chained to the floor of a glass tank mostly filled with water, but you can still breathe through your nose: NBD? No. Problem.
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5. If it would take a pile of 50 zombies clambering over each other get over your high backyard fence, but only 49 are trying, do you relax?
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6. No. You don't merely reflect that they're falling just short. You fight to reduce the number of zombies clawing their way towards you.
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7. A win margin of 1-3 votes in the Senate vs a bill that, last week, was considered a wild long-shot for passage should not be comforting.
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8. If there's no room for error, then some sort of unexpected change or previously undreamt-of compromise is all that's needed for disaster.
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9. Think of the 2016 elections. Seemed like Clinton had a safe, solid 3-point margin. Then Comey. Then a solid 1-point pargin. Then... oops!
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10. You can say that a bill with 49 votes has 0% chance of Senate passage, while 50 votes has 100%. Fine: technically true in some sense.
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11. For those of us concerned about protecting health coverage for millions of Americans, the goal until Sep 30 should be to secure hard NOs
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12. Let's get as many Rs as possible to publicly come out against Graham-Cassidy. Call your R senator every day next week. Visit offices.
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13. How this plays out if we do our jobs right: the pressure will soften up support—& then when awful CBO score comes out, Rs will drop off
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14. If a bunch of them flee—with us chasing after them—then they won't even have a vote, and they'll move on to other bills at end of month
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15. Children's Health Insurance Program, Federal Aviation Administration, & other programs expire Sep 30 unless Congress passes reauth bills
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16. If we end momentum for Graham-Cassidy soon, order will return to universe & those bills will fill up Senate calendar, instead of repeal
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17. But if Rs refuse to come out against this repeal bill—or worse yet, trumpet support—we need to erupt like a (civic, peaceful) volcano
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18. We're SO close to putting this sad, frightening chapter behind us. Just 15 more days until Sep 30. Can't slip up now, in final moments.
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19. Sep 30 isn't just end of Fiscal Year 2017. It's also Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement.
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20. Let's make sure this battle is well behind us when that day comes. If we let down our guard, we'll have that much more to atone for.
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End of conversation
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