@sameer_singh17 no, through march
@sameer_singh17 wait, so now you're saying part of the market is irrelevant? I thought that was my position...
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@monkbent I said subsidy structure was the most important factor for a reason. -
@sameer_singh17 not even that is most important. The most important factor for Apple in China is the strength of their brand -
@monkbent We'll see soon enough. There are some indications that a majority of iPhone sales in greater China come from HK, not carriers. -
@sameer_singh17 all that matters this year is if the brand still has enough cache to draw rich CM subscribers -
@monkbent Which is why I modeled modest growth, not a decline. CM will certainly help, but need to understand income profile. -
@sameer_singh17@monkbent Because of the unclear pent-up demand, I can't be sure if any initial sales if CM is added will "distort" the#s -
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@monkbent BTW, this was my estimate from last year - http://www.tech-thoughts.net/2012/09/iphone-sales-estimates-by-region.html … That estimate saw a lot of resistance as well. -
@monkbent We're at ~116m after Q3, so the low end of that estimate's looking quite good. Best to base estimates on data as far as possible. -
@sameer_singh17 than mapping to a country's supposed demand curve -
@monkbent Certainly a lot of uncertainty regarding CM income profile. But analysts tend to get carried away - http://bgr.com/2012/08/07/iphone-5-sales-projection-250-million/ … -
@monkbent@sameer_singh17 160-170 m for cy’13 is plausible though for iPhone. All models. -
@BenBajarin@monkbent I haven't run my numbers for this year yet, but that sounds about right. Initial sales data should help a bit. -
@sameer_singh17 you estimate 2014 is 2015 in my chart yes? I’m thinking about updating to be more aggressive.pic.twitter.com/yS1wAXwUGk
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