Right now, the site says HRC has a 53.2% chance of winning. Does @NateSilver538 really know how to distinguish that from a 53.7% chance?
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Come to think of it, does
@NateSilver538 really know how to distinguish a 53% chance of winning in July from a 57% chance of winning? - Show replies
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When your statistical output has a decimal, is it more or less honest to publish xx.x or "between x and x"?
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%x.x seems like faux precision, but is consistent with modeling. Aren't arbitrary ranges just...arbitrary?
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There's a joke about that:http://mobile.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/w/williamgil386691.html …
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Well they have a model,its a good model,it spits out a precise number,I say report that # and caveat Emptor
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Do you know of anyone doing similar work to
@FiveThirtyEight who's doing it more responsibly? They seem tier 1 to me.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@benjaminwittes I have same pet peeve re SAT scores & other supposedly meritocratic indicators in which#elites are so personally invested.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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