If only 9 cases by 1 Dec, with doubling approx each week, how were there so many /detected/ pneumonia cases in Dec? Pneumonia only in 5% of infections?
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It only works if (1) the case data is complete and accurate (2) the index case is in mid-late Nov (3) a competing hypothesis involving a nearby Sarbeco research lab does not exist.
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If you consider that not all infections can actually trigger and epidemic... it might well be.
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