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Benchmark Politics
@benchmarkpol
Joined February 2016
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Benchmark Politics
@benchmarkpol
Post-analysis of the Benchmark Model. I'd say it did pretty great! We projected 35 seats, and there are currently 30 seats with 10 outstanding. Demos performed slightly better in R leaning seats, but we identified the true tossup races accurately.
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Benchmark Politics
@benchmarkpol
Biden and Sanders are both likely at their peak — complete name recognition. Warren and Harris have room to grow as we have seen in primary polling. Biggest thing though: no national vote. Trumps win was based on very specific EC outcome which came from popular vote loss
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Mark Murray
@mmurraypolitics
Our new NBC/WSJ poll results are our first hypothetical general-election matchups for the 2020 race: Biden 51%, Trump 42% Sanders 50%, Trump 43% Warren 48%, Trump 43% Harris 45%, Trump 44% (July 7-9, MOE: +/- 3.5%)
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Benchmark Politics
@benchmarkpol
The snapshot of Harris and Biden re: busing as Sanders sits in the middle illustrates this. -Biden holds steady and does not impress supporters ( "more than 4 in 10 said he did worse than they had expected")
usatoday.com
Poll: Kamala Harris surges in Iowa as Bernie Sanders suffers after debate
A new Suffolk University/USA TODAY Poll in Iowa, which holds the opening caucuses, shows Kamala Harris surging as Bernie Sanders struggles after the debate.
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Benchmark Politics
@benchmarkpol
---> - Harris and Warren have enjoyed nice numbers in the "wanting to learn more about" questions and it seems the debate has given them the spotlight they needed. - There is undoubtedly a drop in Sanders' support after a rather unremarkable debate performance ---->
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Benchmark Politics
@benchmarkpol
-Sanders seems to have benefited heavily from 1) Lack of Awareness among general electorate (This was an oft argued point which seems to be coming to fruition) and 2) General distrust of "Clinton name" -Buttigieg seems to have lost quite a bit of support despite --->
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Benchmark Politics
@benchmarkpol
There are few things one could extrapolate from this from an anecdotal standpoint: -We have been hinting that polls suggest Harris and Warren have most to gain from recognition, which is happening -Biden has likely hit his peak given how widely known he is at this point
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Benchmark Politics
@benchmarkpol
CNN Poll POST DEBATE (There is lots to digest here) twitter.com/ryanstruyk/sta Biden 22% (!!!) Harris 17% (!!!) Warren 15% (!!!) Sanders 14% (!!!) Buttigieg 4% (!!!) Booker 3% O’Rourke 3% Notice all the (!!!)? Lots of widely swinging numbers here with Harris being the top move
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Ryan Struyk
@ryanstruyk
Brand new @CNN poll of the 2020 race just out: Biden down 10 points, Harris and Warren double their support since May Biden 22% Harris 17% Warren 15% Sanders 14% Buttigieg 4% Booker 3% O’Rourke 3% Klobuchar 2% Everyone else 1% or less
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Benchmark Politics Retweeted
G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
PSA: Polls 👏 are 👏 generally 👏 weighted 👏 to 👏 match 👏 the 👏 demographics 👏 of 👏 the 👏 country 👏 as 👏 a 👏 whole.👏 If you think a survey has too few young people, educated people, white people, Democrats etc., check the weighting scheme before tweeting about it!
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