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2) Suppose the choice was having 3 megaprojects or 10 medium-sized ones. The megaprojects could be one third as cost-effective, but the total impact would be higher. Megaprojects also have big positive externalities from training staff, becoming widely known etc.
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3) It's striking that the projects that were biggest in pre-2015 (OP, GiveWell, MIRI, CEA, 80k, FHI) are still among the biggest today, when additional resources should make new types of project possible. (Tho there are some exceptions like CSET.)
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4) There is plenty of funding, a fair number of interested junior employees, and also some ideas for megaprojects. The biggest bottleneck seems like leadership. Second would be more and better ideas.
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I had thought the funding overhang in effective altruism might be shrinking, but now it seems bigger than ever. This means there are even bigger skill bottlenecks for grantmakers, people with new ideas, those able to run big projects, and related roles. 80000hours.org/2021/07/effect
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If EA is truly talent constrained, spend millions/billions training/educating smart 10-20 years olds with specialized high schools/university focused on EA related concerns. Fully optional, fully funded preparation to best help the world.
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