Some crowdsourced forecasting attempts for coronavirus:
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=coronavirus …
- https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1504-how-many-total-cases-of-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-as-of-20-march-2020 …
h/t @briangoodrich
This seems like a reasonable summary to me: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1223604911507755008?s=21 …https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1223604911507755008 …
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Another nowcast published on the 31st that lines up with the report in the Lancet. Both say it's likely much more widespread than the official number of confirmed cases. https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov-model-2/ …pic.twitter.com/wCSn1hyRjc
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This means the actual mortality rate is likely much lower than the initial reports of 2% to 3%. This makes me less worried about the health impact than I initially was. That said, even something as mild as the flu is no picnic in the aggregate.
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I've been trying to be less vague about my predictions, so I'll put a number on it. I think there's a 50% chance there will be 0.5m to 1m cases before 2021. And I give 25% to both tails.
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Waxing philosophical a bit: I do worry about the possibility of a black swan virus that could take out a significant proportion of humanity. I don't think nCoV is it, but it would be swell if we could get vaccine development time down below a year.
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This is a good discussion on nCoV, and forecasting in general. Their recommendation is to have 2 weeks of food and a kit with essentials like basic medicine and a radio. It's cheap and useful in many scenarios, whether or not nCoV spreads.https://twitter.com/80000Hours/status/1224401961904234496?s=20 …
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