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Alexander Baunov proslijedio/la je Tweet
Европа после брекзита – это Европа, где альтернатива ЕС представлена не отстающими странами на востоке Европы, а Великобританией. Россия теперь не в прихожей ЕС, а в открытом Британией измерении европейского качества без европейского членства.
@baunovhttps://carnegie.ru/commentary/76012 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Alexander Baunov proslijedio/la je Tweet
Scoop: In effort to attract visitors, Russia may start requiring only a hotel reservation to get a tourist visa and extend its validity to 6 months.https://iz.ru/969384/natalia-bashlykova/dolshe-budesh-inostrantcam-nachnut-vydavat-rossiiskie-vizy-na-polgoda …
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Alexander Baunov proslijedio/la je Tweet
(1/14) Уханьский вирус с самого начала стал и политической проблемой. Чем обернется эпидемия для руководства Китая?pic.twitter.com/eNUH8Tim8g
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Alexander Baunov proslijedio/la je Tweet
Российский конституционный протест пока не складывается. Почему? Отвечает
@baunov:https://carnegie.ru/commentary/80888 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
12/12 The new justice minister is Konstantin Chuychenko, who was at university with Medvedev (who, let’s recall, was once rumored to be headed for the Supreme Court). Together they will likely tackle the issue of legal reform, include the constitutional reform proposed by Putin.
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11/12 The other ministers responsible for spending are the social bloc. Amid stagnation, voters are least happy with this bloc. In the new government, these ministers are all new, & they are also the youngest. If necessary, they can easily be replaced.
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10/12 He’s pleased with those who save, & displeased with those who create economic growth by spending. Those who were responsible for generating economic growth (former PM Dmitry Medvedev & Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin) have been replaced.
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9/12 Also untouched are the ministers & senior officials responsible for macroeconomic stability (Siluanov, Nabiullina, Manturov). Healthy macroeconomic indicators are considered a form of national security. Putin is pleased with those who’ve helped accumulate Russia’s reserves.
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8/12 The presidential pool (defense, foreign, emergencies & interior ministers) remains in place. The first 3 are traditionally popular with the public, & first 2 are also associated with Russia’s recent military & diplomatic successes. Sanctions haven’t changed voters’ minds.
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7/12 The new PM & ministers have been picked not for their popularity with voters, but for their management achievements within the ruling bureaucracy. They are not known to voters. That means this is not a crisis government. Its goal is development, not salvation.
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6/12 The presence of people who have worked with influential Russian politicians & businessmen isn’t to say they are someone’s proxies. There is no one in Russia who can go to Putin & compel him to do anything.
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5/12 There are five people in the new government who have previously worked with the influential Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin. He could therefore work comfortably with the new govt as either PM or as president. This could mean Sobyanin is also in the running for next president.
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4/12 Among the deputy PMs are four new, largely unknown figures brought to the government by Mishustin. This shows that Mishustin is not just a “technical” PM, but a full-fledged head of government and contender for the role of president.
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3/12 It’s also the most technocratic government yet. The two biggest ideologues—Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky and Education Minister Olga Vasilyeva, who saw it as their duty to promote their own conservative, patriotic and religious views—have gone.
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2/12 It’s Russia’s youngest government in many years. All of new Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s deputies are under 55, and six of eight new ministers are under 45.
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THREAD 1/12 What’s key to understanding
#Russia’s new government: Now that Medvedev, Mutko and Kozak have gone, this is the first government not to contain Putin's personal friends and associates from his past. Their replacement with younger technocrats appears to be complete.Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
4/4 In other words, change is seen as both the solution to the problem, and a source of danger. This is why Putin is in such a hurry to get the transition underway.
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3/4 But a state of change is viewed as a danger to the state, a moment of instability & uncertainty. Changes, therefore, should be swift & discreet, and completed as soon as possible so the system can return to a new state of equilibrium and stability.
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2/4 Still, Putin has decided that change is unavoidable, both for the authorities to be popular at the time of the handover, and for his own legacy. Currently popularity is being hindered by lack of economic growth, public discontent and mistrust of the government.
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THREAD 1/4 On Putin’s plans for the power transition: it’s clear he is hurrying to implement his plan to make sure the initiative comes from him, rather than allowing his critics to seize it. Authoritarian regimes gravitate toward stability & the status quo. Change is risk.
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