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Prikvačeni tweet
New paper, from me: "Monetary Misperceptions: Optimal Monetary Policy under Incomplete Information" http://basilhalperin.com/papers/monetarymisperceptions.pdf … /1pic.twitter.com/4ZvFYRaKhd
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There are (very) important reasons to be skeptical of the identification; but IMO the paper is still using a creative method to tackle a very important question Big, _if_ true!https://twitter.com/BasilHalperin/status/1218244605302337537 …
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File under "big if true": new Jorda, Singh, and Taylor paper uses trilemma IV and finds that Tight monetary policy lowers productivity in the (12y) long run (!) => Expansionary monetary policy boosts long-run productivity (!) So money is not neutral? https://www.nber.org/papers/w26666.pdf …pic.twitter.com/XedqHcaUqh
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(Obligatory PS that more immigration would be good anyway)
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The problem in this particular case is: winning firms could just be stealing business from losing firms! i.e. maybe if every firm could “win” the H1B lottery, there would be no net gain (2/2)
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You *cannot* make general equilibrium conclusions from partial equilibrium studies. You *cannot* conclude from this paper that more immigration would be good (1/2)
@ATabarrokhttps://twitter.com/landryst/status/1217456458582851584 …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Milton Friedman channeling monetary policy econtwitter. The original subtweetingpic.twitter.com/PUHPHlWXEC
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Basil Halperin proslijedio/la je Tweet
My attempt to briefly make a philosophical statement of the currents in
@RadxChange. https://twitter.com/RadxChange/status/1211691714873896960 …Tweet je nedostupan.Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Basil Halperin proslijedio/la je Tweet
every time you reread this exchange it becomes better
@gwernpic.twitter.com/wN3joMLhYd
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Basil Halperin proslijedio/la je Tweet
Interesting to consider in the context of apology research in the private sector https://www.nber.org/papers/w25676.pdf …https://twitter.com/CassSunstein/status/1188466356741652483 …
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Related: option-implied probability that LIBOR 5y forward will be <100bps: 40-50%! This data can be updated in real-time: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/banking/mpd.aspx#/m1/LR5y3m/m2/LR5y3m/st1/prDec/st2/prDec/range/max …pic.twitter.com/p8pSRs8FqL
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Repeat after me: we. are. going. to. hit. the. ZLB. again.pic.twitter.com/YJYSmfGxlA
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Options-implied probability that US hits ZLB in next 3 yearspic.twitter.com/YENc1RkXFT
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Basil Halperin proslijedio/la je Tweet
Biggest thing in these Fed minutes: "The staff's analysis suggested that the ELB would likely bind in MOST future recessions" [ELB = effective lower bound = ~0]
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How should firms apologize? Summary at
@voxeu of our research testing economic theory using a field experiment at Uber (cc@ho_ben)https://voxeu.org/article/how-firms-should-apologise …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Basil Halperin proslijedio/la je Tweet
Specifically in the central banking context, arguably time inconsistency is overrated. In developed world, has there been any evidence of inflation bias in last 4 decades? And we have good theory for why time inconsistency can be overcome -- reputation (Barro-Gordon)
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Basil Halperin proslijedio/la je Tweet
In a democracy, "who can vote" ends up inextricable with "who do politicians consider to be their constituents" and "whose interests are weighed" and "who do we consider fully a person." Therefore:https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/10/20835327/voting-age-youth-rights-kids-vote …
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You think you can't become a bigger Paul Romer fanboy and thenhttps://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/05/upshot/paul-romer-burning-man-nobel-economist.html …
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"You haven’t eliminated your degrees of freedom; you’ve just moved them from the model stage to the mapping stage."pic.twitter.com/2bcWVNzYz0
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