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baseballot's profile
Nathaniel Rakich
Nathaniel Rakich
Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot

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Nathaniel Rakich

@baseballot

Sabermetric-minded politics writer, social-science-minded baseball writer. Elections @FiveThirtyEight.

Philadelphia via Boston
baseballot.blogspot.com
Joined December 2011

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    1. Nathaniel Rakich‏ @baseballot Jun 22

      Very clear political battle lines tonight. Adams won Black and Hispanic voters in the outer boroughs. Wiley won Brooklyn/Queens hipsters. Garcia won Manhattan elites. And Yang won Asian and Orthodox Jewish/ethnic white areas of Brooklyn. Map by @cinyc9.pic.twitter.com/nnY3Q2JE7l

      108 replies 701 retweets 2,478 likes
      Show this thread
      Nathaniel Rakich‏ @baseballot Jun 22

      And here's why Garcia will make up ground with absentee ballots. The (affluent, white) areas that voted absentee in 2020 overlap neatly with her base areas tonight. http://www.electionatlas.nyc/mapimages/pdf/PresprimaryNYC2020Absentee.pdf …pic.twitter.com/VDcYdhKtwy

      8:45 PM - 22 Jun 2021
      • 77 Retweets
      • 391 Likes
      • God of Politics Joey Mauro NCS💕 Md0 Paul Newell 紐保羅 Char Aznable Bruce le parisien ute fan Pages Ronnie Cho
      8 replies 77 retweets 391 likes
        1. Claire McCaskill’s Burner‏ @McCaskillBurner Jun 22
          Replying to @baseballot

          How much do you expect things to change as the mail in ballots are counted? I was expecting somewhat of an Adams mirage but I’m not clear on how large it would be expected to be.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Tim Positive Subway Tweets  💉 Smith‏ @PositiveSubway Jun 22
          Replying to @baseballot

          Say, was there anything going on in June 2020 that may have been unusual in terms of absentee voting

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. Charles Sumpter 🌈 🐶 🇺🇸 😷 🗳️ 🌊‏ @CharlesASumpter Jun 23
          Replying to @pacoccino @baseballot

          Haha exactly. An area having alot of white people doesn't make it "affluent."

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. funny ✡ 🐝 🍞 🍷 🕵️‍♂️‏ @afunnnyworld Jun 23
          Replying to @baseballot

          I voted absentee with garcia #1

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Adam Schiavone‏ @AdamSchiavone Jun 23
          Replying to @baseballot

          I really hope she does, but it’s likely the lead is too big to be made up

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Coffee Monstress‏ @NYCJulieNYC Jun 23
          Replying to @baseballot

          I voted absentee from Manhattan and ranked Wiley #1.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. DINOMALS!‏ @dinomals Jun 23
          Replying to @baseballot

          I think Adams won’t win. I have a hard time seeing anyone putting him or Yang second. The race was so acrimonious that everyone put Wiley or Garcia as 2 or 3, and Adams/Yang as 4/5s. I bet we see Garcia or Wiley pull this out. I’m guessing Garcia.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Box‏ @WeinerZen Jun 23
          Replying to @dinomals @baseballot

          Adams already won. Voters in NYC(or anywhere really) are not very ideologically coherant. I guarantee there is enough 2nd adams for him to win. His lead is insurmountable.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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