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baseballot's profile
Nathaniel Rakich
Nathaniel Rakich
Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot

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Nathaniel Rakich

@baseballot

Sabermetric-minded politics writer, social-science-minded baseball writer. Elections @FiveThirtyEight.

Philadelphia via Boston
baseballot.blogspot.com
Joined December 2011

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    Nathaniel Rakich‏ @baseballot 19 Nov 2020

    Nathaniel Rakich Retweeted WNYC  🎙

    If Dems have won this seat, they've very likely won a supermajority in the NY state Senate (and thus control of redistricting).https://twitter.com/WNYC/status/1329436787899572225 …

    Nathaniel Rakich added,

    WNYC  🎙Verified account @WNYC
    After trailing behind his Republican opponent by more than 6,000 votes on Election Day, State Senator Andrew Gounardes declared victory against Republican Vito Bruno, following days of ballot counting. https://gothamist.com/news/andrew-gounardes-declares-victory-over-republican-vito-bruno-after-surge-absentee-and-mail-ballots …
    1:53 PM - 19 Nov 2020
    • 17 Retweets
    • 321 Likes
    • Katie Unger 🔥 Dan S #HealthcareVoter Maryam Josh Nancy Richardson Oddish 🌺 Will Alex Alexander McCoy
    10 replies 17 retweets 321 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. MA politics hater‏ @SpareBostonian 19 Nov 2020
        Replying to @baseballot

        What if the supermajority relies on Simcha Felder though?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. JAY SURG‏ @JOSURG 19 Nov 2020
        Replying to @SpareBostonian @baseballot

        Then there will be no supermajority and I hope that happens and he holds them by there neck

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. It’s-a Tyler Dinucci  🤌🏼‏ @TylerDinucci 19 Nov 2020
        Replying to @baseballot

        Even with losing maybe 2 seats, it’s a huge boon towards them keeping the House in 2022. Pretty easy to turn NY-11 into a blue seat, for instance.

        3 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
      3. Ferik‏ @On_Politike 19 Nov 2020
        Replying to @TylerDinucci @baseballot

        Weird that they didn't do it last time around

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Confused Mathmo‏ @confusedmathmo 19 Nov 2020
        Replying to @baseballot

        No more unilateral diarmament. #GerrymanderNewYork

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Taniel‏Verified account @Taniel 19 Nov 2020
        Replying to @baseballot

        They probably will win a supermajority, but I don't think this is the tipping point: they'd still need to take the lead in two races where they're trailing right now. (Gounardes was already ahead yesterday.)

        1 reply 1 retweet 21 likes
      3. Nathaniel Rakich‏ @baseballot 19 Nov 2020
        Replying to @Taniel

        Is that due to differences in counting speed, though? On election night, SD-22 looked like Democrats' 43rd seat. I had SD-46 and SD-40 as easier lifts for Dems. (Also SD-50, but I know that's a special case.)

        2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Coach Harry Ellis‏ @Jetspete 19 Nov 2020
        Replying to @baseballot

        I was told dems were against partisan redistricting

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Matt Pizzuti  🗽 🌲 🏳️‍🌈‏ @ituzzip 19 Nov 2020
        Replying to @Jetspete @baseballot

        But not unilateral disarmament

        0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. PCR RitesGood‏ @pcrritesgood 19 Nov 2020
        Replying to @baseballot

        They should make 25 districts in Brooklyn & Queens, everything north of Manhattan should be one district and Staten Island and Long Island east of Queens should be one combined district. See how the GOP feels about gerrymandering after that.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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