Internal polls? Kennedy did exactly what a partisan justice would do and retired at the time that would further conservative/GOP ends. Which is what most modern justices do. Breyer is a useful idiot. RBG also privileged her personal job satisfaction.
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Replying to @CarlPaulus
But run polls on what? What’s the question here? Whether Dems want to let a GOP president make the court 7-2? I think the answer is no.
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Replying to @yeselson @CarlPaulus
Polls on Democrats' odds of continuing to control the Senate in 2023. Urgency of replacing Breyer NOW is proportional to the likelihood of losing the Senate in 2022. Otherwise, no reason you can't wait for 2023 or 2024.
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Replying to @baseballcrank @CarlPaulus
It’s 50 50!!! *Of course* the chances are good that the Dems won’t control following ’22. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t, but it’s crazy to think it remotely close to a sure thing. You don’t need polls to tell you that, especially polls this far out. So yes, *safe* to retire.
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Dems could lose control before ’22 if one of their elderly senators pass away suddenly. If somebody dies in an accident, they could lose control tomorrow. This isn’t complicated. RBG should have quit in ’13.
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Replying to @yeselson @CarlPaulus
All true. I'm just saying that Carl's (rather modest) point is not irrational: the level of panic suggests that people are worried about holding the Senate.
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I think I'm more pessimistic about the GOP's chances of regaining the Senate than most people, amusingly enough. Those WI and PA seats will be tough holds, and AZ and GA are going to be hard to take back given likely candidate quality.
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Replying to @EsotericCD @baseballcrank and
Warnock is toast. He will not avoid a runoff in GA. And the GOP will win that runoff.
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