Favored? Yes. 100-to-0 favored? Hell no.
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Replying to @varadmehta
I'll reassess when we have a nominee. I agree that the turf of Ohio + 2022 is favorable. But R Senate candidates have shown an endless capacity for blowing winnable races, & the field here has some real problems. The possibility of blowing it should not be dismissed this early.
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Replying to @baseballcrank @varadmehta
It's not at all clear that Mandel would win a general here. Where Dems have put up strong statewide candidates, they've done okay, and he's always been a weak general election candidate (and likely weaker now than before).
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He won by 13 twice as treasurer
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Yeah, that's a weird take.
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That's a downballot race. He lost to Brown by 6, and he had more crossover appeal then. Dems won staewide races for SCt in 2018 and 2020 and Mandel is viewed very differently than he was before.
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State supreme court races are non-partisan for the general election. Not at all comparable to a contest for political office.
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Neither is race for treasurer when other party puts up weak candidates and vast majority of voters vote party slates. Mnadel has alienated lots of folks who used to be fans.
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Ohio is a red state now and Trump, who has said worse, won by 8 twice
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We've seen many examples of people who tried to replicate Trump without being Trump, and it ending badly.
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