This feels like it’s destined to be an opening anecdote in some Scout Mindset style big idea book
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the most, most, most generous interpretation is that some people are just terrible guessers and have no stat-feel as a lifelong baseball fan who got into journalism by blogging CBO reports, I have no sympathy for this level of innumeracy. but maybe it's a thing?
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Replying to @DKThomp @JHWeissmann and
Its hard to make that work though because home price compared to household income is a really salient and straightforward metric. It's implausible not to be able to distinguish between 4X & 40X.
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Replying to @DKThomp @karlbykarlsmith and
He was commissioner of housing preservation and development for NYC. He thought the average Manhattan rent was $4K (an overestimate). I just don't see any way he could have thought the median sale price in Brooklyn was $100K.
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Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @karlbykarlsmith and
ya. altho he guessed 4k after he was told that he embarrassingly under-estimated the avg brooklyn home value by 80+ %. might have motivated him to guess high.
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Replying to @DKThomp @JamesSurowiecki and
There also might just be a different coding of “Manhattan” vs “Brooklyn” here, where you inaccurately assume there’s some nonexistent sprawl of affordable housing in farther out neighborhoods you’re less familiar with
2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
That's worse! It means you actually lack a lived feel for the city, as opposed to being bad at math.
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Replying to @baseballcrank @DKThomp and
Yeah saying this is a source of error not a good thing
0 replies 0 retweets 3 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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