Serious response: wasn't there actually less randomness pre-1920/pre-1900, when there were more balls in play & pitchers threw more innings, so there was a larger sample for each pitcher's season?https://twitter.com/VorosM/status/1388593930439065600 …
Interesting, I don't think I ever saw studies (yours or others, but I may have missed) of the real early years. I know pitchers then still had huge FIP/ERA splits, but assumed that was more determined by team defense in larger samples.
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Early on, that was my assumption as well and said as much. But when I looked into it, I remember that not being the case.
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