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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    1. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris Mar 8
      Replying to @BenjySarlin @baseballcrank @joshtpm

      I think NV, AZ, GA and NH are all going to be pretty dicey if the national environment shifts at all to the right — which is the most likely outcome, given history

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    2. Benjy Sarlin‏Verified account @BenjySarlin Mar 8
      Replying to @gelliottmorris @baseballcrank @joshtpm

      Yep, to be clear it's easy to see how R's gain quite a bit even without a big shift in the political winds. I'd start with them favored. I just think incumbency, lack of House's redistricting issues, potential for demographics to help D's on turnout, Trump, make it less certain.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris Mar 8
      Replying to @BenjySarlin @baseballcrank @joshtpm

      Less certain -- Sure! I'm just talking about average outcomes here

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Benjy Sarlin‏Verified account @BenjySarlin Mar 8
      Replying to @gelliottmorris @baseballcrank @joshtpm

      But to get to the original point! One of the biggest reasons I'm uncertain is I don't think the old "economy doesn't affect the midterm, only presidential elections" is going to be a great indicator here if the economy does in fact hit those Goldman Sachs numbers out today

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Benjy Sarlin‏Verified account @BenjySarlin Mar 8
      Replying to @BenjySarlin @gelliottmorris and

      So I think that's the one disagreement

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris Mar 8
      Replying to @BenjySarlin @baseballcrank @joshtpm

      There is always a reason to make the case that a point will deviate from the trend. I'll just say the last time growth was that strong, the party in power lost 15 seats in the House

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris Mar 8
      Replying to @gelliottmorris @BenjySarlin and

      In 1966 GDP growth was 7-10%, and Dems lost 47 seats in the House

      2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
    8. Josh Marshall‏Verified account @joshtpm Mar 8
      Replying to @gelliottmorris @BenjySarlin @baseballcrank

      This is also an example though that you can't separate from the preceding election. If you have a blowout that exceeds fundamentals you're going to have some retrenchment.

      6 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
    9. Joshua Zeitz‏Verified account @JoshuaMZeitz Mar 8
      Replying to @joshtpm @gelliottmorris and

      I’d add the backdrop of civil rights, white backlash, Vietnam, mounting concerns about inflation—all contributed heavily to Democratic losses. (The CA gubernatorial election was about Berkeley and open housing, for instance.) Which isn’t to say ‘22 won’t hinge on culture wars.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    10. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris Mar 8
      Replying to @JoshuaMZeitz @joshtpm and

      Yes, the point that other things overrode the importance of economic growth in 66 and 78 (and 2006 and 2010 &c!) is exactly the point I'm making — and that this has been true on average across midterms since 1940

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank Mar 8
      Replying to @gelliottmorris @JoshuaMZeitz and

      Economy matters, but it matters more in POTUS races. There was a big effort after 2010 to spin it as just the economy.

      7:45 AM - 8 Mar 2021
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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