Not dunking on Josh here, the conventional wisdom is just way wrong on midterms: There is zero — zero — recent historical correlation between economic growth and midterm performance. It’s The Political Referendum, Stupid https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.2307/3598531 …https://twitter.com/joshchafetz/status/1368931438914076682 …
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I think Dems could do better on average because of their various policy victories, yeah, but if they do it won’t be because of GDP or income growth
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G. Elliott Morris Retweeted Benjy Sarlin
I agree with this -- my point is that people are operating from the assumption that growth -> Dems hold the House and Senate bc of "fundamentals" or whatever, when the only fundamentals for midterms are POTUS approval and which party holds the White House.https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1368937561083834374?s=20 …
G. Elliott Morris added,
Benjy SarlinVerified account @BenjySarlinReplying to @BenjySarlin @sgadarian @gelliottmorrisI think it’s totally possible that if things are good, people pocket it as the new background normal and vote on culture war/thermostatic preference for divided govt, etc. But I’m not at all confident this fits into a historic pattern.7 replies 8 retweets 81 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @gelliottmorris
Yeah, I would also clarify that I think "Democrats significantly overperform the historic pattern on midterms" and "Dems hold the House" are two separate outcomes
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Replying to @BenjySarlin @gelliottmorris
Yeah, I think there's a very plausible scenario where Dems have a strong midterm, expand their senate majority and lose the House. I would say it might even be the most likely scenario.
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Replying to @joshtpm @BenjySarlin
The House and Senate fortunes are connected, at least historically. You think they lose seats in the House but gain in the Senate? Hmmm
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Happened to the GOP in 2018. Unusual, but the Senate map does vary, whereas the House map will be more R favorable given reapportionment.
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The Senate also has so few competitive seats up that majority can turn on just a couple of bad primary candidates winning or a sex scandal.
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I feel pretty good about the GOP's chances if they can avoid Trump burning down the Senate (which is easier said than done). But definitely a lot of variance in possible outcomes.
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I'd feel the same way in their shoes
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