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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    1. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris Mar 8

      G. Elliott Morris Retweeted Josh Chafetz

      Not dunking on Josh here, the conventional wisdom is just way wrong on midterms: There is zero — zero — recent historical correlation between economic growth and midterm performance. It’s The Political Referendum, Stupid https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.2307/3598531 …https://twitter.com/joshchafetz/status/1368931438914076682 …

      G. Elliott Morris added,

      Josh ChafetzVerified account @joshchafetz
      Things like this are a reason I don't think 2022 will be as bad for Democrats as midterms generally are for the party in power. https://twitter.com/BruceBartlett/status/1368929570385190912 …
      31 replies 41 retweets 258 likes
      Show this thread
    2. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris Mar 8

      I think Dems could do better on average because of their various policy victories, yeah, but if they do it won’t be because of GDP or income growth

      11 replies 6 retweets 95 likes
      Show this thread
    3. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris Mar 8

      G. Elliott Morris Retweeted Benjy Sarlin

      I agree with this -- my point is that people are operating from the assumption that growth -> Dems hold the House and Senate bc of "fundamentals" or whatever, when the only fundamentals for midterms are POTUS approval and which party holds the White House.https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1368937561083834374?s=20 …

      G. Elliott Morris added,

      Benjy SarlinVerified account @BenjySarlin
      Replying to @BenjySarlin @sgadarian @gelliottmorris
      I think it’s totally possible that if things are good, people pocket it as the new background normal and vote on culture war/thermostatic preference for divided govt, etc. But I’m not at all confident this fits into a historic pattern.
      7 replies 8 retweets 81 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Benjy Sarlin‏Verified account @BenjySarlin Mar 8
      Replying to @gelliottmorris

      Yeah, I would also clarify that I think "Democrats significantly overperform the historic pattern on midterms" and "Dems hold the House" are two separate outcomes

      2 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
    5. Josh Marshall‏Verified account @joshtpm Mar 8
      Replying to @BenjySarlin @gelliottmorris

      Yeah, I think there's a very plausible scenario where Dems have a strong midterm, expand their senate majority and lose the House. I would say it might even be the most likely scenario.

      4 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
    6. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris Mar 8
      Replying to @joshtpm @BenjySarlin

      The House and Senate fortunes are connected, at least historically. You think they lose seats in the House but gain in the Senate? Hmmm

      4 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank Mar 8
      Replying to @gelliottmorris @joshtpm @BenjySarlin

      Happened to the GOP in 2018. Unusual, but the Senate map does vary, whereas the House map will be more R favorable given reapportionment.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    8. Benjy Sarlin‏Verified account @BenjySarlin Mar 8
      Replying to @baseballcrank @gelliottmorris @joshtpm

      The Senate also has so few competitive seats up that majority can turn on just a couple of bad primary candidates winning or a sex scandal.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank Mar 8
      Replying to @BenjySarlin @gelliottmorris @joshtpm

      I feel pretty good about the GOP's chances if they can avoid Trump burning down the Senate (which is easier said than done). But definitely a lot of variance in possible outcomes.

      7:17 AM - 8 Mar 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Gabe Katz
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Benjy Sarlin‏Verified account @BenjySarlin Mar 8
          Replying to @baseballcrank @gelliottmorris @joshtpm

          I'd feel the same way in their shoes

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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