Not dunking on Josh here, the conventional wisdom is just way wrong on midterms: There is zero — zero — recent historical correlation between economic growth and midterm performance. It’s The Political Referendum, Stupid https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.2307/3598531 …https://twitter.com/joshchafetz/status/1368931438914076682 …
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The Senate also has so few competitive seats up that majority can turn on just a couple of bad primary candidates winning or a sex scandal.
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I feel pretty good about the GOP's chances if they can avoid Trump burning down the Senate (which is easier said than done). But definitely a lot of variance in possible outcomes.
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