Agreed with this as a general rule of thumb (less than an absolute bar), including Ross' point about Hawley. Doesn't matter if you're pro- or anti-Trump or somewhere in between (or Trump himself), it will be harder to win in 2024 if you're closer to the Trump blast radius.https://twitter.com/DouthatNYT/status/1360225476783067137 …
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Republicans turned to a governor after Watergate. Democrats, after the Clinton years, recovered the WH with a guy who was an obscure state senate backbencher until 2004. That's good news for DeSantis, Abbott, or Noem.
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It's way too soon to write anybody off. But the deep divisiveness of Trump within & outside of the party will mean that anybody who had a lot of engagement for or against Trump will be asked, first, to justify that in ways that will turn some people away off the bat.
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Dan McLaughlin Retweeted Jeremy Coleman
The thing for Bush in 2000 was that the party liked his dad personally, but mistrusted him politically; he was able to build his own political profile as a GOV, but also rallied social conservatives when the choice came to just him vs McCain.https://twitter.com/jeremycoleman/status/1360248612576395269 …
Dan McLaughlin added,
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