This makes total sense. If you’re in the Trump camp, the loss didn’t happen. Everyone else in GOP assumes it’s too Trump-specific to bother and is psyched that the party overperformed downballot. Not sure why they’d need an autopsy.https://politi.co/3mx6IM6
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Replying to @BenjySarlin
I just don't think you need to go down that far though. 2012 surprised Rs in a negative way (lost House/Senate seats in what looked like a good environment), 2020 in a positive way. And frankly a lot of party leaders were fine with Trump losing (as opposed to rank-and-file).
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Replying to @SeanTrende
Benjy Sarlin Retweeted Benjy Sarlin
Yep. The latter part is also what the people who’d actually conduct an autopsy think but can’t say, which is “lol of course he lost, come on”https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1339921509452828672 …
Benjy Sarlin added,
Benjy SarlinVerified account @BenjySarlinThe reason the 2012 loss was so destabilizing is the GOP thought they “should” have won given that the economy was still weak and they nominated a credible vanilla R who was party elites’ preferred pick. Autopsy made a lot of sense. But Trump is Trump, what more is there to say?Show this thread1 reply 2 retweets 22 likes -
Replying to @BenjySarlin @SeanTrende
Map/demos of 2012 also more unsettling. Romney won nearly every voting bloc that had been considered a 'swing' vote the prior 25 years. 2013 was all 'permanent majority' stuff from Ds. By contrast, GOP made demographic inroads in 2020, can win in 2024 w/just suburbs in GA+AZ+WI.
2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes -
Replying to @baseballcrank @BenjySarlin
Yeah, the story of how the GOP wins in 2024 seems a lot more straightforward right now than the story of how it would be able to win in 2016 seemed in 2012.
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Replying to @SeanTrende @BenjySarlin
Of course, an 'autopsy' mood might be much more common if Democrats win both Senate seats on Jan 5.
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Replying to @baseballcrank @SeanTrende
I think that's the exception that proves the rule, though, which is that race will be impossible to separate from Trump's post-election behavior either way now. Could see it generating backlash against Trump, but not autopsy calls.
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
True, but (1) losing in GA upsets the "we survived Trump" mood & enflames the "GA is rigged" mood, while (2) winning in GA increases the "Biden's win in GA is a fluke" sense.
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