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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 30 Nov 2020

    Dan McLaughlin Retweeted Ned Ryun

    2 biggest problems w/treating fundamental indicators as infallible: 1) Assumes Trump is a conventional politician rather than a mold-breaking, polarizing figure. 2) Assumes there were no unusual fundamental factors this year, such as a global pandemic causing massive shutdowns.https://twitter.com/nedryun/status/1333431995620323328 …

    Dan McLaughlin added,

    Ned RyunVerified account @nedryun
    I did a podcast day before elections on indicators that have been correct for the last 40-60 years in predicting who wins Presidential. @realdonaldTrump was winner in every predictor. So you’re asking me to suspend my disbelief that this election was legit. In short, I will not. https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1333277817371566080 …
    7:29 AM - 30 Nov 2020
    • 18 Retweets
    • 66 Likes
    • nomorepantiesinLA Tom Garrett Mike Rathbone Clifford Smith Michael Lee DanO 🕊 MakeGOPDisappear;BanVotingMachines Andrew S. SlangingNuts
    9 replies 18 retweets 66 likes
      1. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 30 Nov 2020

        Many of the fundamental indicators did point to a Trump win, just as many of the polling & other factors pointed to a Biden blowout. What we got landed between those two poles.

        5 replies 11 retweets 27 likes
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      1. Nathan Wurtzel‏ @NathanWurtzel 30 Nov 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        I also put podcast forecasts over counted votes when it comes to decide who won an election so I understand this reasoning.

        0 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
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      2. The Captain's Blog‏ @williamnyy23 30 Nov 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        I don't buy most of the fraud allegations, BUT, by the same token, you seem to be asking skeptics to ignore the unprecedented level of mail-in voting implemented with lax procedures that practically invite fraud.

        2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
      3. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 30 Nov 2020
        Replying to @williamnyy23

        No, & I assume that some level of fraud occurred as a result. I'm asking people who are asserting fraud (rather than merely skeptical) to deal in evidence rather than argue from incredulity.

        1 reply 2 retweets 8 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Andrew Blum‏ @alb202 30 Nov 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank @willwilkinson

        40 years! aka 10 data points.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Sebastian H‏ @Sebastian_Hols 30 Nov 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank @willwilkinson

        One of the problems is that the ‘fundamental’ economic indicators are drifting further and further from having any real correspondence with regular people’s experiences in the economy.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Steve Is Damaged‏ @SteveIsDamaged 30 Nov 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        "mold-breaking, polarizing"? Doesn't that seem a bit charitable at this point? It's as accurate a description as painting an arsonist as an "atypical interior designer"?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Poor Substitute for Publius‏ @psforpublius 30 Nov 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        Poor Substitute for Publius Retweeted Poor Substitute for Publius

        I am a political science professor who studies elections and I did a long thread about this after the election.https://twitter.com/psforpublius/status/1324025491708211200 …

        Poor Substitute for Publius added,

        Poor Substitute for Publius @psforpublius
        A long and ranting thread about elections and uncertainty. Last week I said that, even though I study elections, I had no idea what was going to happen. I thought it might be helpful to explain why that was and what lesson people should take moving forward./1
        Show this thread
        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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