Smoldering hot take: Because of runoff dynamics, Schumer has a better position of being majority leader under Trump than under Biden.
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So this certainly isn't something I care enough about to go to the mattresses over, especially since we aren't living in Rick & Morty (unfortunately) and don't get to explore other timelines. But let me explain: 1/
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Let's first assume that if Trump wins the two Georgia Senate seats are very, very difficult holds. He isn't on the ballot, but an African-American and a suburban-friendly candidate are. And suburbs probably continue their leftward march if Trump is POTUS. 2/
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I also think the "keep a check on Biden" argument plays well in that event, and the basic rightward lean of Georgia comes into play if Biden wins. 3/
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So where does it leave us? I think +AL, -CO/AZ/ME are more-or-less baked in unless Trump *really* overperforms the polls. That's 49 R Senators. I don't think that the GOP loses other seats, though, if Trump wins. 4/
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Replying to @SeanTrende
Sean, wait—Thats 51 Rs, not 49. Change your analysis at all?
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49 with 2 GA seats undecided
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