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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Verified account
@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    1. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 4 Oct 2020

      Trump is in deep trouble, but the NBC/WSJ poll by itself is not exactly conclusive proof that he's finished.pic.twitter.com/6KVa0LCJs3

      78 replies 29 retweets 140 likes
    2. DJ - B_rad‏ @Yinzerinkc 4 Oct 2020
      Replying to @baseballcrank

      Wanna bet?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 4 Oct 2020
      Replying to @Yinzerinkc

      On what? I've said publicly for months that Trump is likely to lose, I just don't trust this particular poll, given its track record.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Richard Yeselson‏ @yeselson 4 Oct 2020
      Replying to @baseballcrank @Yinzerinkc

      Its track record is A- on 538, but I’m sure you’ve got a more sophisticated methodology yay yiu elucidate for us. Biden is probably not ahead by 14, but it’s fatuous to run down the poll.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 4 Oct 2020
      Replying to @yeselson @Yinzerinkc

      I refer you to the first tweet. This exact poll at this exact stage was off the mark by double digits four years ago.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Richard Yeselson‏ @yeselson 4 Oct 2020
      Replying to @baseballcrank @Yinzerinkc

      Cherry-picking one poll over an entire election cycle is not evidence its an unreliable poll. If you were litigating vs such an “expert” representation, you would laugh it out of Court and for good reason. Similarly, *you* are not an expert, so you should defer to those who are.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Richard Yeselson‏ @yeselson 4 Oct 2020
      Replying to @yeselson @baseballcrank @Yinzerinkc

      When you stop arguing, but lack the grace to tweet “fair point” (even when you’re most closely held priors are not at stake), I’ll just stipulate you are wrong on the merits and you should read @NateSilver538 methodology re rating pollsters.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 4 Oct 2020
      Replying to @yeselson @Yinzerinkc @NateSilver538

      You wanna put your faith in individual, national polls, knock yourself out. The last three cycles have shown the folly of that approach.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Richard Yeselson‏ @yeselson 4 Oct 2020
      Replying to @baseballcrank @Yinzerinkc @NateSilver538

      No! It’s *amazing* how consistently you misread or don’t read at all my arguments. Are you this incompetent—doubt it—or so tendentious you can’t read an adversarial interlocutor dispassionately? The latter.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Richard Yeselson‏ @yeselson 4 Oct 2020
      Replying to @yeselson @baseballcrank and

      Refer to my first tweet. You claim that it’s an unreliable poll generally . That is simply false. There is no evidence for that. 538 rates WSJ-NBC an A- pollster over **many** iterations, not just your one cherry picked poll. Then I also said it’s not likely Biden was up 14.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 4 Oct 2020
      Replying to @yeselson @Yinzerinkc @NateSilver538

      My entire argument is that this national poll at this juncture does not tell us a lot. Are you disputing that, or not?

      12:09 PM - 4 Oct 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Brian Dell
      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Bubba Karras‏ @MichaelDKarras 4 Oct 2020
          Replying to @baseballcrank @yeselson and

          Well, ANY single national poll won't tell us a whole lot at this juncture. It's not because this particular pollster is bad though.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Richard Yeselson‏ @yeselson 4 Oct 2020
          Replying to @baseballcrank @Yinzerinkc @NateSilver538

          It’s just another piece of bad news for Trump, but **obviously** it’s not dispositive. But no— you went further in response to another tweeter. You claimed generally it’s an unreliable pollster. No—we should trust *no single poll.* But it’s a top grade pollster.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Richard Yeselson‏ @yeselson 4 Oct 2020
          Replying to @yeselson @baseballcrank and

          In short, your argument is that it’s one poll by an **unreliable** pollster. The latter is both untrue and a distraction from what every serious observer understands—yes, **its just one poll.** So you get an A your truism (it’s just one poll) but an ‘F’ for your false claim.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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