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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 8 Sep 2020

    Dan McLaughlin Retweeted Nathaniel Rakich

    Oh, for the optimism of the first week of September, 2008, before the McCain campaign, the markets, the Mets, & several of my clients all went off a cliff simultaneously in a matter of weeks.https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1303330054739496963 …

    Dan McLaughlin added,

    Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot
    The @FiveThirtyEight nat'l polling average with 56 days until E-Day: 2020: Biden+7.5* 2016: Clinton+2.0 2012: Obama+3.5* 2008: McCain+1.2* 2004: Bush+7.5* 2000: Gore+2.9 1996: Clinton+16.0 1992: Clinton+7.8 1988: Bush+4.1 1984: Reagan+19.7 1980: Reagan+3.4 1976: Carter+13.4
    Show this thread
    11:18 AM - 8 Sep 2020
    • 1 Retweet
    • 10 Likes
    • Paul Kempf TommyInVegas Sharer of scary COVID news and cat videos Natone Negative Paul Seale Drunk Sumo Michael Brennan Dominus de potatoes nutmeg
    5 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
      1. William Belcher‏ @EdB_Ohio 8 Sep 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        And that's the reason you posted the info.pic.twitter.com/kv98mf2b6T

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. Fulano, Zutano y Mengano S.C.‏ @DonHelios 8 Sep 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        I hope I'm not straying *too* much into UnsKeWinG pOlLs territory, but I wonder whether they primed the average this high with all those early polls showing Biden +10-15, and/or overweighting Ds in the samples. Ofc, I don't know--who does? Only poll that matters is the one in Nov

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 8 Sep 2020
        Replying to @DonHelios

        Old polls roll off the average regularly

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. Neil Stevens‏ @presjpolk 8 Sep 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        So according to that tweet, the polls at this point guessed the winner wrong in 3 of the last 5 Presidential elections? That’s striking.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 8 Sep 2020
        Replying to @presjpolk

        But got the national popular vote wrong in only one of those.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. CTIronman‏ @CTIronman 8 Sep 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        Yes. The light at the end of the tunnel can prove to be an oncoming train. That said, the fact the credit markets were starting to seize up was apparent when Fan/Fred had their ability to roll over debt questioned.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Roux‏ @rouxdsla 8 Sep 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        Rumor has it Democrats will try and tank the market a week before the election

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