i would be surprised if Trump lost FL, especially after DeSantis & Scott both won in 2018 when most R's did not
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Yes, but there are exceptions. See: 2012. Romney underperformed and Obama scraped out a win: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html …
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Trump must win Florida. It's optional for Biden. I think the more important states are the rust belt and Arizona, and maybe North Carolina. If Trump is within about 2% in those states, Biden should worry.
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A related question: is there any state Trump is competitive in that he lost in 2016? Minnesota, it seems to me, is the only state really in play that he lost in 2016. And Maine's 1st seems out of reach as does New Hampshire. Take that for what it's worth.
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