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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 8 Sep 2020

    I don't know if Trump will win Florida, but RCP currently has Florida 5.3 points more R than the nation (Biden +7.1 nationally, +1.8 in FL), which actually looks about right.

    8:24 AM - 8 Sep 2020
    • 3 Retweets
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    5 replies 3 retweets 23 likes
      1. florida man, norms expert  🌺‏ @2rick2morty 8 Sep 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        i would be surprised if Trump lost FL, especially after DeSantis & Scott both won in 2018 when most R's did not

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Clifford Smith‏ @CliffSmithZBRDZ 8 Sep 2020
        Replying to @NathanGClark1 @baseballcrank

        Yes, but there are exceptions. See: 2012. Romney underperformed and Obama scraped out a win: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html …

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. Clifford Smith‏ @CliffSmithZBRDZ 8 Sep 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        Trump must win Florida. It's optional for Biden. I think the more important states are the rust belt and Arizona, and maybe North Carolina. If Trump is within about 2% in those states, Biden should worry.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Clifford Smith‏ @CliffSmithZBRDZ 8 Sep 2020
        Replying to @CliffSmithZBRDZ @baseballcrank

        A related question: is there any state Trump is competitive in that he lost in 2016? Minnesota, it seems to me, is the only state really in play that he lost in 2016. And Maine's 1st seems out of reach as does New Hampshire. Take that for what it's worth.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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