Trump's not going to win Nevada, however. At least, not unless he has a significant lead in the polls there by Election Day. Polls *overstated* Trump there in 2016, do so commonly for Rs.
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If he’s winning MI then he’s likely winning at least one of WI and PA
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That would be my assumption, but I'm working here with the numbers as they currently stand.
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$20 says MI, WI, and PA all vote the same way - win or lose.
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Gotta put NE02 into tossup
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I think he loses PA and MI this time. Philly and surrounding burbs are gonna light him up good plus the joe Scranton connection. I’d say his best path is to hold WI and AZ while losing PA and MI. Tall order.
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He’s got a better shot by far at Wisconsin and Minnesota than Michigan.
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He has one extremely narrow and getting more narrow path to victory. He basically needs every state outcome to be the same as it was in 2016,and this is just not the same political environment as 2016 and Biden is not Hillary Clinton. Trump is the Hillary Clinton of 2020.
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State’s results tend to be correlated. That’s the part of uncertainty the modelers underestimated in 2016.
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