Then there's Pennsylvania.pic.twitter.com/DkJbEkz5oV
Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.
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Florida is almost exactly where it was this time in 2016.pic.twitter.com/szFNCTAF6S
Minnesota looks somewhat similar - good news for Biden, since Hillary won - but then, the final polls there in 2016 massively overstated Hillary's margin.pic.twitter.com/sfNYGQDmOf
Trump is ahead of where he was in Iowapic.twitter.com/r2Xt6mLPxM
The apples-to-apples comparisons, even taken at face value, are not all good news for Trump. Arizona is in noticeably worse shape:pic.twitter.com/NTjXMNLK4K
Also, Trump is further back in Nevada, the one state where he led in the RCP average going into the election & lost (a common occurrence for Republicans in Nevada).pic.twitter.com/NBsA2kteoG
Is Nevada an issue with unions getting on board an motivated late in the cycle?
It's mostly that certain blocs of Democratic voters - especially Vegas-based Hispanic unionized casino and hotel workers - are easy to turn out but hard to reach by phone to poll.
That sounds like something that is hard to predict for either side, but the tilt is definitely to the left.
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