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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    1. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 26 Aug 2020

      We do see a similar trend in a handful of other states. Trump down less in Michigan today than he was in 2016.pic.twitter.com/KNdmtdc5f7

      3 replies 3 retweets 20 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 26 Aug 2020

      Then there's Pennsylvania.pic.twitter.com/DkJbEkz5oV

      4 replies 2 retweets 15 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 26 Aug 2020

      Florida is almost exactly where it was this time in 2016.pic.twitter.com/szFNCTAF6S

      8 replies 3 retweets 14 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 26 Aug 2020

      North Carolina.pic.twitter.com/inrLM2s1t3

      2 replies 2 retweets 9 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 26 Aug 2020

      Ohio.pic.twitter.com/EIMekVCJFZ

      3 replies 2 retweets 9 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 26 Aug 2020

      Georgiapic.twitter.com/7vdOudgmzy

      3 replies 2 retweets 10 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 26 Aug 2020

      Minnesota looks somewhat similar - good news for Biden, since Hillary won - but then, the final polls there in 2016 massively overstated Hillary's margin.pic.twitter.com/sfNYGQDmOf

      3 replies 2 retweets 7 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 26 Aug 2020

      Trump is ahead of where he was in Iowapic.twitter.com/r2Xt6mLPxM

      2 replies 2 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 26 Aug 2020

      The apples-to-apples comparisons, even taken at face value, are not all good news for Trump. Arizona is in noticeably worse shape:pic.twitter.com/NTjXMNLK4K

      1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 26 Aug 2020

      Also, Trump is further back in Nevada, the one state where he led in the RCP average going into the election & lost (a common occurrence for Republicans in Nevada).pic.twitter.com/NBsA2kteoG

      2 replies 2 retweets 9 likes
      Show this thread
      Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 26 Aug 2020

      Anyway, there are logical reasons why Trump is in bigger trouble than at this point in 2016, an election he won by the skin of his teeth, notably that there are fewer undecideds, no anti-incumbent trend in his favor, Biden's lower unfavorables.

      9:04 AM - 26 Aug 2020
      • 2 Retweets
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      10 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
        1. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 26 Aug 2020

          But: you look at how the results in November diverged from the August polling, and there should be some humility about where we stand.

          10 replies 3 retweets 26 likes
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        1. Supply Side Gaslighting‏ @82_and_0 26 Aug 2020
          Replying to @baseballcrank

          and he's not running against HRC, arguably the least popular candidate since McGovern

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        1. GetVaxxed...Please!‏ @andrewdgravy 26 Aug 2020
          Replying to @baseballcrank

          I said 4 years ago, I've been saying every day since then, this election is going to be close, at least in the EC, no matter what. If Dems want to beat Trump, they need to behave like they're 10 points behind no matter what the polls say. This is as true today as it's ever been!

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        1. Benjy Sarlin‏Verified account @BenjySarlin 26 Aug 2020
          Replying to @baseballcrank

          One X factor that makes it harder to compare is there wasn’t enough 2016 polling in the key states and the polling methods in those states were often changed in response to blowing the result

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        2. Gone Racing‏ @mustangracing50 26 Aug 2020
          Replying to @HSubspecies @baseballcrank

          As much as I hope you are right, Zogby has been very....unreliable. However, I dont know how you measure the silent voter who is angry about the destructive riots. I dont think its being captured and it benefits Trump greatly.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. Rott‏ @Political_Rott 26 Aug 2020
          Replying to @baseballcrank

          Come on man, people know who they are voting for

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        1. Robert‏ @Ruhroe 26 Aug 2020
          Replying to @baseballcrank

          Of course there's the giant caveats: Covid and massive, sustained protests that are growing increasingly militant and violent. All solid points you raise, but if we've learned anything over the last four years conventional wisdom needs to be updated. This year is no exception.

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