We do see a similar trend in a handful of other states. Trump down less in Michigan today than he was in 2016.pic.twitter.com/KNdmtdc5f7
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But: you look at how the results in November diverged from the August polling, and there should be some humility about where we stand.
and he's not running against HRC, arguably the least popular candidate since McGovern
I said 4 years ago, I've been saying every day since then, this election is going to be close, at least in the EC, no matter what. If Dems want to beat Trump, they need to behave like they're 10 points behind no matter what the polls say. This is as true today as it's ever been!
One X factor that makes it harder to compare is there wasn’t enough 2016 polling in the key states and the polling methods in those states were often changed in response to blowing the result
As much as I hope you are right, Zogby has been very....unreliable. However, I dont know how you measure the silent voter who is angry about the destructive riots. I dont think its being captured and it benefits Trump greatly.
Come on man, people know who they are voting for
Of course there's the giant caveats: Covid and massive, sustained protests that are growing increasingly militant and violent. All solid points you raise, but if we've learned anything over the last four years conventional wisdom needs to be updated. This year is no exception.
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