I remain convinced that Trump is very likely to lose, but there's a reason why polling of this race even in August should be approached with cautionpic.twitter.com/CTgHnnpDMF
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Anyway, there are logical reasons why Trump is in bigger trouble than at this point in 2016, an election he won by the skin of his teeth, notably that there are fewer undecideds, no anti-incumbent trend in his favor, Biden's lower unfavorables.
But: you look at how the results in November diverged from the August polling, and there should be some humility about where we stand.
Is Nevada an issue with unions getting on board an motivated late in the cycle?
It's mostly that certain blocs of Democratic voters - especially Vegas-based Hispanic unionized casino and hotel workers - are easy to turn out but hard to reach by phone to poll.
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