I remain convinced that Trump is very likely to lose, but there's a reason why polling of this race even in August should be approached with cautionpic.twitter.com/CTgHnnpDMF
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Florida is almost exactly where it was this time in 2016.pic.twitter.com/szFNCTAF6S
Minnesota looks somewhat similar - good news for Biden, since Hillary won - but then, the final polls there in 2016 massively overstated Hillary's margin.pic.twitter.com/sfNYGQDmOf
The apples-to-apples comparisons, even taken at face value, are not all good news for Trump. Arizona is in noticeably worse shape:pic.twitter.com/NTjXMNLK4K
Also, Trump is further back in Nevada, the one state where he led in the RCP average going into the election & lost (a common occurrence for Republicans in Nevada).pic.twitter.com/NBsA2kteoG
Anyway, there are logical reasons why Trump is in bigger trouble than at this point in 2016, an election he won by the skin of his teeth, notably that there are fewer undecideds, no anti-incumbent trend in his favor, Biden's lower unfavorables.
But: you look at how the results in November diverged from the August polling, and there should be some humility about where we stand.
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