Possible? Yes. I keep warning people not to rule it out. But what you describe is a textbook longshot.
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But the polling experts tell us it’s still too far out—especially given the contingencies this year—to believe Trump can’t get to 4-5% behind. And think of what you’re saying—that Trump losing the popular vote by that margin is just the way life is.
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He's not winning down 5. He needs to get below 4. But yes, like most incumbents, his path to victory involves mostly repeating what he did last time.
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