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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Verified account
@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    1. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 18 Jul 2020

      Dan McLaughlin Retweeted ABC News

      1. This is a 10-point lead, not a 15-point lead, and the people saying 15 should know better. 2. Down 10 is still really bad news for Trump.https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1284700161189588993 …

      Dan McLaughlin added,

      ABC NewsVerified account @ABC
      BREAKING: Joe Biden opens up a 15-point lead over Pres. Trump in a new @ABC News/Washington Post poll, ahead 55-40% among registered voters. That advantage narrows to 54-44% among likely voters. https://abcn.ws/3fJwb2v 
      Show this thread
      28 replies 19 retweets 84 likes
    2. Josh Barro‏Verified account @jbarro 18 Jul 2020
      Replying to @baseballcrank

      I think a five-point gain from a LV screen is wacky in the current circumstances.

      3 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
    3. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 18 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jbarro

      It's not that historically unusual.

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
    4. Josh Barro‏Verified account @jbarro 18 Jul 2020
      Replying to @baseballcrank

      My understanding is the party gap RV/LV is supposed to be smallest when there is a GOP incumbent.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. Josh Barro‏Verified account @jbarro 18 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jbarro @baseballcrank

      Josh Barro Retweeted Nate Cohn

      There was also this oddity in the Monmouth PA poll, which found an enormous LV/RV gap, when the NYT/Siena poll had no gap.https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1283416467560693761 …

      Josh Barro added,

      Nate CohnVerified account @Nate_Cohn
      Biden leads by 10 or 7 points in high or low turnout LV models (should note that we didn't find an LV/RV gap, and there can be some noise here, esp at this fairly small sample size)
      Show this thread
      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
      Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 18 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jbarro

      LV screens are still not highly reliable in July, so you expect those sorts of oddities. Still, using RV only by this point is nonsense.

      9:27 PM - 18 Jul 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • Scott Davis 🇺🇸 יהושע יעקב Nathan Sheppard
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. sfinbar‏ @sfinbar 18 Jul 2020
          Replying to @baseballcrank @jbarro

          Tells you something about popular legitimacy and why GOP likes voter suppression though.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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