Much as I'm a fan of crunching primary results, there are deep methodological problems with drawing conclusions from any primary conducted after the coronavirus crisis hit in earnest in mid-March.https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1281331670398963713 …
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@ForecasterEnten is quite famous for humiliating himself in 2016, so we can probably marginalize that guy at least. - Show replies
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The small n in pres. election models makes them tenuous at best. There are important underlying assumptions built in because things usually work a certain way (candidates are reasonably strategic, fundraising is equal enough to not matter, etc.) and if one fails, the model fails.
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It's a two horse race! The race is three and a half months away! ... and the horses are old, like, really old. I mean, seriously, anything could happen. Neither might be able to gallop, let alone, trot ... hell, we just don't know.... anyway. PLACE YOUR BETS!
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This other guy is pretty good, but my “go on Wikipedia and see who won” model correctly predicts 58 of the past 58 presidential elections
End of conversation
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2016 as well. I'm sure you went with HRC huh?https://fortune.com/2016/02/26/stony-brook-professor-trump/ …
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