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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 9 Jul 2020

    Dan McLaughlin Retweeted Dan Spencer

    If you're gonna go all the way out on a limb (and "Trump has a 91% chance of winning as of now" is that), may as well go all the way. I'm not ready to say this race is over, but basing a whole model on primaries is deeply questionable.https://twitter.com/cayankee/status/1281329206945820674 …

    Dan McLaughlin added,

    Dan Spencer @cayankee
    Model That Has Predicted the Last 25 of 27 Presidential Elections Correctly Has Trump Winning...By A Lot https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/07/09/model-that-has-predicted-the-last-25-of-27-presidential-elections-correctly-has-trump-winning...by-a-lot/ …
    1:49 PM - 9 Jul 2020
    • 5 Retweets
    • 58 Likes
    • Paul Kempf Rquebus snorty mcpherson Nathan Thais Posadas Congress Exists To Spend CatoTheBarner Geoffrey Ogden Þe Hat of Remembrance
    16 replies 5 retweets 58 likes
      1. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 9 Jul 2020

        Dan McLaughlin Retweeted Dave Weigel

        Much as I'm a fan of crunching primary results, there are deep methodological problems with drawing conclusions from any primary conducted after the coronavirus crisis hit in earnest in mid-March.https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1281331670398963713 …

        Dan McLaughlin added,

        Dave WeigelVerified account @daveweigel
        The Trump campaign has also emphasized his support in primaries, though that's slipped in the last few. Protest vote against Trump in MD, DE was above 10%. (In DE, unsurprisingly, Biden had a higher % of primary vote.) https://twitter.com/baseballcrank/status/1281329693472563204 …
        4 replies 2 retweets 27 likes
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      2. Dr. Non-Birthing Cis-gendxr Latinx adjacent MSE PE‏ @TonesHyus 9 Jul 2020
        Replying to @nzapteryx @baseballcrank

        @ForecasterEnten is quite famous for humiliating himself in 2016, so we can probably marginalize that guy at least.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Poor Substitute for Publius‏ @psforpublius 9 Jul 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        The small n in pres. election models makes them tenuous at best. There are important underlying assumptions built in because things usually work a certain way (candidates are reasonably strategic, fundraising is equal enough to not matter, etc.) and if one fails, the model fails.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Tom‏ @AppliedGiftedEd 9 Jul 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        It's a two horse race! The race is three and a half months away! ... and the horses are old, like, really old. I mean, seriously, anything could happen. Neither might be able to gallop, let alone, trot ... hell, we just don't know.... anyway. PLACE YOUR BETS!

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      2. amschnei‏ @amschnei 9 Jul 2020
        Replying to @USSpaceLawyer @baseballcrank

        This other guy is pretty good, but my “go on Wikipedia and see who won” model correctly predicts 58 of the past 58 presidential elections

        0 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
      3. End of conversation
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      1. MerCel Capital‏ @darylmox 9 Jul 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank @varadmehta

        2016 as well. I'm sure you went with HRC huh?https://fortune.com/2016/02/26/stony-brook-professor-trump/ …

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