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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 3 Jul 2020

    Dan McLaughlin Retweeted Nate Silver

    The hard part, even aside from massive uncertainty about where the economy will be, is that we have never had an economic collapse - esp from non-economic causes - of this scale entirely within an election year, let alone w/a recovery of yet-unknown scope.https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1279062702208552961 …

    Dan McLaughlin added,

    Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
    Been working hard on the economic component of our presidential model and FWIW, projected economic conditions by November would have Trump favored to lose the popular vote by ~6 points, although with a large amount of uncertainty.
    Show this thread
    7:43 AM - 3 Jul 2020
    • 2 Retweets
    • 9 Likes
    • White American Optimist John Scorza Paul Kempf RealTipperMarth Rabbi-who-have-No-Knife MANopausing Þe Hat of Remembrance TM
    1 reply 2 retweets 9 likes
      1. RightlySkeptical‏ @RightSkeptic 3 Jul 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        @NateSilver538 You cannot build a model for 2020 on these grounds. You have no precedent. The main econ question for voters in the fall: who is the better bet to recover the economy? Since voters credited Trump for a great economy prior to Mar, he will likely win that argument.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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