It's one thing to look at the evidence (polls included) & call a race over. Even then, it's easy to be wrong! I've certainly done that. It's another to just go full "we know the outcome already" in May, when your guy is trailing in the polls.
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Nobody clicks when you hedge. When I wrote at RS, by the end, I had to write horrific headlines when I wrote about polls.
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SHOCK POLL SHOWS SAME THING I HAVE SAID ABOUT EVERY POLL FOR MONTHS
End of conversation
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gotta get those clicks -- not sure the writer of the piece even wanted a headline like this
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Yeah, well I sure remember a lot of Polls with "swaggering certainty"
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If you want proof predictions 5 plus mos out are stupid remember the Access Hollywood tape and how many wrote Trump's toast or after Biden got smoked in IA, NV & NH that Biden should drop out? And those were less than a month before the outcome was known.
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In politics, as in sports, no one EVER pays a price for a bad prediction. I don't know why this is true, but it is.
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