I think the betting markets are baking in likely substantial foreign interference (which I think will include vote changing this time)
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that's because all these polls during a pandemic are crap
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National polls were off by one point, on average.
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So is the stock market
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In Oct '19 the betting markets gave Warren more than a 2 to 1 advantage over Biden as he maintained a double digit lead. In 15/16 the markets were lagging indicators of Trump. Not sure why folks get so invested in the betting markets as better predictors. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/08/09/do-betting-markets-outperform-the-polls-hardly/ …pic.twitter.com/FXCBrr5qjL
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I'm a skeptic.
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2016 results have scared people from betting against Trump.
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