The third party candidates in 2016 were, besides McMullin, the exact same ones who ran in 2012. Trump won bc of reduced D vote in key states, only some of which went third party. 2012: 29.9% of eligible voters for Obama, 27.6% for Romney. 2016: 28.4% for HRC, 27.2% for Trump.https://twitter.com/stuartpstevens/status/1255582752474357764 …
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IOW, the falloff in votes from Romney to Trump, and the larger falloff in votes from Obama to Hillary, was because the voters didn't like the candidates. The third party options were the beneficiaries of that, not the cause.
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Dan McLaughlin Retweeted Tim Miller
Perfect example. Michigan 2012 vs 2016: Obama 2,564,569 Clinton 2,268,839 Romney 2,115,256 Trump 2,279,543 Johnson 7,797 Johnson 172,136 Stein 21,897 Stein 51,463 (McMullin: 8,183) People didn't suddenly get a lot more interested in Johnson & Stein.https://twitter.com/Timodc/status/1255585936630415360 …
Dan McLaughlin added,
Tim MillerVerified account @TimodcReplying to @databyler165,000 more people voted libertarian or constitution party in Michigan in 2016 than 2012. Trump won Michigan by 10k. I think you are understating the potential impact and how many of these voters there are who aren’t usual 3rd party gadfly types2 replies 2 retweets 18 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @baseballcrank
Good flag I didn’t even count McMullin because it wasn’t apples to apples but that makes the total universe 173k. Cause and effect can debate. But my view is acting like these voters are not potentially electorally significant swing voters is crazy.
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Replying to @Timodc
There are times when a charismatic, well-funded or issue-driven third party campaign (Perot, G.Wallace, TR) can actually win voters who would otherwise have gone to the major party nominees, but I really do not think the evidence shows Johnson, McMullin, or Stein did that at all.
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The 1964-68-72 races had some pretty horrible options. My dad hated LBJ with a passion, but voted for him because he thought Goldwater would start a nuclear war. Last Democrat he ever voted for.
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