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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    1. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 29 Apr 2020

      Dan McLaughlin Retweeted stuart stevens

      The third party candidates in 2016 were, besides McMullin, the exact same ones who ran in 2012. Trump won bc of reduced D vote in key states, only some of which went third party. 2012: 29.9% of eligible voters for Obama, 27.6% for Romney. 2016: 28.4% for HRC, 27.2% for Trump.https://twitter.com/stuartpstevens/status/1255582752474357764 …

      Dan McLaughlin added,

      stuart stevens @stuartpstevens
      Trump won with 46.1% of the vote. Romney lost with 47.2. Only reason Trump could win with 46.1% is increase in third party. Agree we don't know impact of Amash (and polling is very suspect in these things) but a straight up one on one seems most likely way to beat Trump. https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1255496463095865346 …
      6 replies 12 retweets 44 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 29 Apr 2020

      IOW, the falloff in votes from Romney to Trump, and the larger falloff in votes from Obama to Hillary, was because the voters didn't like the candidates. The third party options were the beneficiaries of that, not the cause.

      2 replies 3 retweets 32 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 29 Apr 2020

      Dan McLaughlin Retweeted Tim Miller

      Perfect example. Michigan 2012 vs 2016: Obama 2,564,569 Clinton 2,268,839 Romney 2,115,256 Trump 2,279,543 Johnson 7,797 Johnson 172,136 Stein 21,897 Stein 51,463 (McMullin: 8,183) People didn't suddenly get a lot more interested in Johnson & Stein.https://twitter.com/Timodc/status/1255585936630415360 …

      Dan McLaughlin added,

      Tim MillerVerified account @Timodc
      Replying to @databyler
      165,000 more people voted libertarian or constitution party in Michigan in 2016 than 2012. Trump won Michigan by 10k. I think you are understating the potential impact and how many of these voters there are who aren’t usual 3rd party gadfly types
      2 replies 2 retweets 18 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Tim Miller‏Verified account @Timodc 29 Apr 2020
      Replying to @baseballcrank

      Good flag I didn’t even count McMullin because it wasn’t apples to apples but that makes the total universe 173k. Cause and effect can debate. But my view is acting like these voters are not potentially electorally significant swing voters is crazy.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 29 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Timodc

      There are times when a charismatic, well-funded or issue-driven third party campaign (Perot, G.Wallace, TR) can actually win voters who would otherwise have gone to the major party nominees, but I really do not think the evidence shows Johnson, McMullin, or Stein did that at all.

      1:16 PM - 29 Apr 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • Zachary Faria Wyatt Taylor Tim Miller
      0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        2. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 29 Apr 2020

          The 1964-68-72 races had some pretty horrible options. My dad hated LBJ with a passion, but voted for him because he thought Goldwater would start a nuclear war. Last Democrat he ever voted for.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. End of conversation

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