IOW, the falloff in votes from Romney to Trump, and the larger falloff in votes from Obama to Hillary, was because the voters didn't like the candidates. The third party options were the beneficiaries of that, not the cause.
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Perfect example. Michigan 2012 vs 2016: Obama 2,564,569 Clinton 2,268,839 Romney 2,115,256 Trump 2,279,543 Johnson 7,797 Johnson 172,136 Stein 21,897 Stein 51,463 (McMullin: 8,183) People didn't suddenly get a lot more interested in Johnson & Stein.https://twitter.com/Timodc/status/1255585936630415360 …
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Amash might have an effect in Michigan. Certainly if I were a Democrat, I would not want him getting too much national attention (wait until he starts ranting about "forever wars" and the like) but I wouldn't mind him getting a lot of attention in Michigan.
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There is good reason to believe that McMullin and Johnson 2016 voters (that didn't vote Johnson in 12') are potential Trump voters this time around.
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An important point those who think Amash would take only from Biden miss is that Trump ran on/still works the perception of being an outsider, someone who is trying to drain the swamp/limit government power over people's lives. Amash can/will counter that on a national stage.
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Trump won because Hillary is awful.
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