I’d have leaned Trump favorite before unemployment claims jumped in the 7 figures.
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I was moving the needle hard toward Trump in late January/early February. Booming economy, opposition divided among very old men, base fired up by failed impeachment. None of that exists anymore.
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Coronavirus is doing a better job running against Trump than Biden is.
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You underestimate how bad the VP choice could be. Also if things are widely opened by October.
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As in 2016, Trump is lucky in the quality of his opponent.
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If we don't stay on a rightward course, this country is baked.
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There are simply to many known unknowns (Biden's VP pick, Biden's sexual assault allegations, state of the economy in autumn and so on). And as usual, there are almost certainly unknown unknowns, too.
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We are a 50/50 country, but right now you have to give the nod to Biden based on the virus, the overwhelming media bias, and the fact that Trump seems incapable of controlling himself. The virus gave Trump the ability to rewrite the past 3 years. He has missed the opportunity.
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IMO, the poll is really a measurement of uncertainty about whether Biden can do something that under conventional circumstances is as complicated as making a mustard sandwich.
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