I do think Arizona stands out as a possible bright-spot for Democrats. They would be better off if they had a breakthrough in Florida, instead or as well, which I wouldn't really rule out given Biden's strength among older voters and the sparse polling there to this point
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The older voter thing interests me. It's hard to explain and maybe Biden+10 among over 65 will prove to be noise. It's partially compositional change: Trump led by just 2 pts among voters over age 61 (65 now), with Clinton ahead among voters age 61-65 in 2016
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At the same time, the more conservative "Silent Generation" is getting old enough to start departing the electorate in greater numbers. Together, I suspect Clinton was quite competitive among voters who were over age 61 in '16 and alive today, and maybe even won them
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One point that didn't make the cut, due to lack of *recent* evidence: I think most of Biden's weakness among nonwhite voters, compared to Clinton, is among black voters and maybe especially young black voters. If so, harder to envision far higher black turnout, Dem GA/NC breakout
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Hard to see it in recent national polls, which often don't breakdown by race. But it was there in our Times/Siena battleground polls in October, which had the same demographic story we see in national polls todaypic.twitter.com/FaRYXBCAqY
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Another, easy to over-look factor in Biden's declining strength among nonwhite voters as a whole is the growing non-black share of nonwhite voters. Non-black nonwhite voters (Hisp/Asian, etc) tend to be more competitive than black voters and are a larger share of new registrants
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I also like looking at a longer window for state polling, post-Dem impeachment inquiry on 9/26, for a bigger n. Here's what that looks likepic.twitter.com/NaJJ8Io2KS
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Replying to @B_M_Finnigan @Nate_Cohn
The odds are looking greater right now that the map a week after Election Day has a lot more states undecided.
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There are two other states that will end up being of major interest. One is Florida. The other is Texas, gasp!
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