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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    1. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 13 Apr 2020

      And on top of this, these are polls of registered voters, not likely voters. Turnout's always a question but LVs are almost better for the GOP than RVs, and I'd guess that will hold again.

      7 replies 30 retweets 111 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 13 Apr 2020

      Over all, Trump's probably doing 4 or 5 points--and perhaps more--among likely voters in the electoral tipping point states than he does among registered voters nationwide

      3 replies 31 retweets 97 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 13 Apr 2020

      I do think Arizona stands out as a possible bright-spot for Democrats. They would be better off if they had a breakthrough in Florida, instead or as well, which I wouldn't really rule out given Biden's strength among older voters and the sparse polling there to this point

      10 replies 33 retweets 172 likes
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    4. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 13 Apr 2020

      The older voter thing interests me. It's hard to explain and maybe Biden+10 among over 65 will prove to be noise. It's partially compositional change: Trump led by just 2 pts among voters over age 61 (65 now), with Clinton ahead among voters age 61-65 in 2016

      4 replies 19 retweets 90 likes
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    5. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 13 Apr 2020

      At the same time, the more conservative "Silent Generation" is getting old enough to start departing the electorate in greater numbers. Together, I suspect Clinton was quite competitive among voters who were over age 61 in '16 and alive today, and maybe even won them

      8 replies 19 retweets 88 likes
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    6. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 13 Apr 2020

      One point that didn't make the cut, due to lack of *recent* evidence: I think most of Biden's weakness among nonwhite voters, compared to Clinton, is among black voters and maybe especially young black voters. If so, harder to envision far higher black turnout, Dem GA/NC breakout

      9 replies 40 retweets 125 likes
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    7. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 13 Apr 2020

      Hard to see it in recent national polls, which often don't breakdown by race. But it was there in our Times/Siena battleground polls in October, which had the same demographic story we see in national polls todaypic.twitter.com/FaRYXBCAqY

      9 replies 25 retweets 93 likes
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    8. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 13 Apr 2020

      Another, easy to over-look factor in Biden's declining strength among nonwhite voters as a whole is the growing non-black share of nonwhite voters. Non-black nonwhite voters (Hisp/Asian, etc) tend to be more competitive than black voters and are a larger share of new registrants

      7 replies 30 retweets 97 likes
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    9. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 13 Apr 2020

      I also like looking at a longer window for state polling, post-Dem impeachment inquiry on 9/26, for a bigger n. Here's what that looks likepic.twitter.com/NaJJ8Io2KS

      12 replies 18 retweets 73 likes
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    10. This Tweet is unavailable.
      Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 13 Apr 2020
      Replying to @B_M_Finnigan @Nate_Cohn

      The odds are looking greater right now that the map a week after Election Day has a lot more states undecided.

      6:33 AM - 13 Apr 2020
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        2. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 13 Apr 2020
          Replying to @B_M_Finnigan

          pic.twitter.com/LddXO4X8gR

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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