Maybe a 6? Every state on this map could reasonably go this way, but given these two candidates, I'd be surprised to see Trump carry PA, WI, & ME-2 but lose to Biden in NC & AZ. https://t.co/2ynFL0MQzG
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If NC flips it’s not because of increased black turnout but rather slightly more diverse, more suburban /coll educated ( transplants from NE) electorate with some former republicans switching. Will be slightly different from how Obama won the state in 08.
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That would be a factor, but I'm wondering how that happens without the same thing being reflected in the Philly burbs. Black turnout is the one variable that hits NC a lot harder than PA.
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