Curve-flattening? Hope so.
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i just look at deaths, which apparently spiked today, by worldmeters, which may be janky idk. still again, 8k per day die normally, even if we hit 800/day, that's a paltry 10% increase. Except these are old and infirm dying, so the real impact might still be next to nil.
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One question would be how long we stay at 800. Some of the models...including the one Fauci thinks credible...have up going up well over 2000 a day for many days.
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Hopefully.
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Also, the (few) deaths are so concentrated in NY and NJ, that death counts in most states are laughably low. 41 in my entire state of Texas.
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I guess the only thing that could put a damper on this if is there is a large outbreak in a new city, somewhere like Dallas. Otherwise, pretty good.
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Is it really changing from exponential to linear or is that noise or is it due to limitations in testing?
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What limitations in testing? The US is now testing ~100k per day. More actually. Nobody comes even close. And number has been steadily increasing.
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looks like today's dailies will pass 20k but not by much. As long as these dailies hover around 20k range we will have some hope that the curve is really bending. deaths today will reach all time high of over 600. But this hopefully will be only 10-15% over previous high.
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On the other hand... I've noticed that my state's Sun & Mon reports have, for 3 consec. wks, shown declines over the Tuesday-Saturday trends preceding. Could be the Sat and Sun data isn't always being reported til Mon. The rural county health depts? This happening elsewhere?
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