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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 26 Mar 2020

    Dan McLaughlin Retweeted Megan McArdle

    We should assume all models *are* highly uncertain. The issue is that we do not have the luxury of time to just play it out & hope we're guessing right about which direction they're off in. Viral pandemics do not move in geologic time.https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/1243203267775135746 …

    Dan McLaughlin added,

    Megan McArdleVerified account @asymmetricinfo
    Guys. Repeating talking points from the climate debate about model uncertainty is not a compelling political argument while hospitals are making triage plans for the hour when they run out of masks and ventilators.
    Show this thread
    8:51 AM - 26 Mar 2020
    • 4 Retweets
    • 19 Likes
    • SarahCW 🏴‍☠️ Sharer of scary COVID news and cat videos MuseumDreams Ben Luis Garcia PT Keith Rickert Jr Brian Hudson 2NinerSavoy
    4 replies 4 retweets 19 likes
      1. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 26 Mar 2020

        Also, "the model said X would happen if we did nothing, we did something, X didn't happen" does not by itself disprove a model. It may! But that requires actual analysis.

        3 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
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      2. Neil Stevens‏ @presjpolk 26 Mar 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        Models are as good as the data fed into them, and the assumptions they’re built on.

        1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
      3. Neil Stevens‏ @presjpolk 26 Mar 2020
        Replying to @presjpolk @baseballcrank

        I don’t say that to *explain* to you what you well know, but just to agree.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. NH‏ @TwoQuoque 26 Mar 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        What if... the mass collective reaction and measures diverted resources away from where they would have been most effective strategically? And that the implications of mass unemployment never got factored in? That would have made a bad situation a disaster.

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      1. One Dad‏ @OneDadsFinance 26 Mar 2020
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        We collectively keep making all sorts of Malthusian mistakes when it come to these predictions. These models make it easy to keep doing - which is modeling outcomes based on static inputs. *inputs are never static*

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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