The 3.3 million unemployment claims today are a direct result of everyone from Morning Joe to Tucker Carlson repeating the baseless predictions of the Imperial College as fact.
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Replying to @bdomenech
All of Western Europe is on lockdown and yet its health systems are on the verge of collapse or arguably beyond in Italy and Spain. Is it all a conspiracy theory?
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I don't think it's a conspiracy and I do believe it's serious. But all the accounts we've heard of health service problems are anecdotal or unreliable. There's a danger of factoids becoming generally accepted and feeding into decision making.
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Replying to @anomalyuk @pegobry and
"But all the accounts we've heard of health service problems are anecdotal or unreliable." You really think this? Why? Have you read the accounts of physicians & nurses in Italy, Spain, New York, et al.? And noted how they correlate with spiking infection and death rates?
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If you don't know what "anecdotal" means, look it up. Reported death rates *so far* are actually not high enough to cause any practical problems. That's the main reason I'm a little sceptical of the stories. I'm expecting them to get much worse! This is probably just starting.
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Replying to @anomalyuk @TWalk and
“Since the beginning of the month in Nembro we have had between 110 and 120 deaths. In the same period last year 14. This is enough to understand.” https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/quasi-mille-morti-nella-bergamascai-sindaci-ma-sono-molti-di-piu_1346006_11/ …
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Replying to @jneeley78 @anomalyuk and
I don't think the nations of China, Italy, Spain, France and Germany are anecdotes, but what do I know. The data can be extremely misleading since testing policies and death reporting requirements are all over the place. That bodies are piling up is demonstrable. Not anecdote.
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Replying to @pegobry @jneeley78 and
The data we have is alarming, but contains a lot of uncertainty. Normally, that counsels for limited action until there is better data. The problem we have is that the nature & speed of viral pandemics makes it an extremely high-risk move to wait for better data to act.
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Replying to @baseballcrank @pegobry and
Yes exactly, I said that. React first. However, the nature of our processes is that once someone acts on information it becomes frozen, because nobody can ever admit a mistake, even one made by taking sensible precautions in a crisis.
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Our political information ecosystem today contains no space for "I was right then but circumstances have changed since then so our decision must change."
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Replying to @baseballcrank @anomalyuk and
By the way, I completely agree with the psychological observation here. Confirmation bias — especially when politics / ideology are involved — is an intoxicating drug.
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