1. This is against the conventional wisdom, but I think Bloomberg drops out in fairly short order if he really does badly tonight - eg, wins no states, misses multiple 15% thresholds, distant 3d or 4th in delegates.
-
Show this thread
-
2. The assumption is that Bloomberg's ego & checkbook can & will keep him in well beyond viability, soaking up attention & playing for a contested convention. Maybe. If he does plausibly tonight, sure. But far from certain.
6 replies 1 retweet 14 likesShow this thread -
3. One, to the extent that Bloomberg is running for ego, there's a point beyond which getting publicly humiliated is not worth it. He's rich & famous enough that he can still get a megaphone without absorbing more of that.
2 replies 1 retweet 11 likesShow this thread -
4. Two, Bloomberg didn't get to be a multibillionaire by throwing good money after bad. If he thinks the campaign is going nowhere, he'll stop.
6 replies 0 retweets 12 likesShow this thread -
5. Three, the theory of his campaign is that stop-Bernie needed a savior. But if the anti-Bernie faction largely consolidates behind Biden, Bloomberg loses both a motivation and a rationale.
2 replies 0 retweets 11 likesShow this thread -
6. Bloomberg is not going to drop out just to serve the cause. He's in this for himself. But he's not John Kasich, either. He has a different set of incentives. He knows that he bet heavily on today, & if that fails, his reasons to *want* to stay in start drying up.
1 reply 2 retweets 12 likesShow this thread -
Dan McLaughlin Retweeted Jim Geraghty
7. If NY was sooner, that would be an easier case to sell himself on. Ohio was a month closer to Super Tuesday in 2016.https://twitter.com/jimgeraghty/status/1234973025092562944 …
Dan McLaughlin added,
3 replies 0 retweets 8 likesShow this thread
8. All this depends on the circumstances. Could be quite different if Bernie has a massively good night. But I'm telling you not to be surprised if Bloomberg folds his tent by the weekend.
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.