1. This is against the conventional wisdom, but I think Bloomberg drops out in fairly short order if he really does badly tonight - eg, wins no states, misses multiple 15% thresholds, distant 3d or 4th in delegates.
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4. Two, Bloomberg didn't get to be a multibillionaire by throwing good money after bad. If he thinks the campaign is going nowhere, he'll stop.
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5. Three, the theory of his campaign is that stop-Bernie needed a savior. But if the anti-Bernie faction largely consolidates behind Biden, Bloomberg loses both a motivation and a rationale.
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6. Bloomberg is not going to drop out just to serve the cause. He's in this for himself. But he's not John Kasich, either. He has a different set of incentives. He knows that he bet heavily on today, & if that fails, his reasons to *want* to stay in start drying up.
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7. If NY was sooner, that would be an easier case to sell himself on. Ohio was a month closer to Super Tuesday in 2016.https://twitter.com/jimgeraghty/status/1234973025092562944 …
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8. All this depends on the circumstances. Could be quite different if Bernie has a massively good night. But I'm telling you not to be surprised if Bloomberg folds his tent by the weekend.
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End of conversation
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I mean I wouldn't have thought he would spend $400 million just to get roasted by Warren but then he did.
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