The Democrats need to take a hard look both at 2018 and at these numbers and recognize who the party's voters are now. Dallas county was a hard red exurb of Des Moines not long ago. These voters are gettable if they are not given the stiff-arm.https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1225806317740285952 …
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Mitt Romney won by 12 in Dallas county in 2012. Trump won by 9 in 2016. That 3 point move happened while the rest of the state moved to Trump. It's these formerly GOP deep suburbs/exurbs of cities are where the flippers are.
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Bonus stat. Gary Johnson got .73% in 2012 in Dallas County and Johnson/McMullin combined got 5.8% in 2016. Those voters are very much up for grabs this time.
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Replying to @Timodc
Assuming the economy holds up, my prediction (both from empirical observation and anecdotal data from non-Trump voters in 2016) is that it will snap back considerably in his direction in 2020. I think AZ/TX/GA/NC won't be as close in November on this trajectory. A big "if".
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Replying to @EsotericCD
I got out of the prediction game in 2016 but when I say up for grabs I mean it in the sense that I could absolutely see what you are suggesting play out...or the inverse. And it’s a big swing
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Replying to @Timodc
Those "educated white suburbanite" Republican voters who deserted Trump in 2016? That's my milieu (yes, even though I'm a hardcore urbanite now). I know those people, they talk to me, and they're like "he's an intemperate jerk, but frankly it hasn't been as bad as I feared."
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Roughly the same here.
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Its the same in rural places too.
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