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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    1. Tim Miller‏Verified account @Timodc 7 Feb 2020

      Tim Miller Retweeted Dave Wasserman

      The Democrats need to take a hard look both at 2018 and at these numbers and recognize who the party's voters are now. Dallas county was a hard red exurb of Des Moines not long ago. These voters are gettable if they are not given the stiff-arm.https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1225806317740285952 …

      Tim Miller added,

      Dave WassermanVerified account @Redistrict
      2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus attendance vs. 2016... Five most college-educated counties: Dallas (Des Moines burbs): +38% Johnson (Iowa City): +9% Polk (Des Moines): +7% Story (Ames): +1% Linn (Cedar Rapids): +1% Everywhere else: -6%
      Show this thread
      26 replies 125 retweets 515 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Tim Miller‏Verified account @Timodc 7 Feb 2020

      Mitt Romney won by 12 in Dallas county in 2012. Trump won by 9 in 2016. That 3 point move happened while the rest of the state moved to Trump. It's these formerly GOP deep suburbs/exurbs of cities are where the flippers are.

      8 replies 19 retweets 95 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Tim Miller‏Verified account @Timodc 7 Feb 2020

      Bonus stat. Gary Johnson got .73% in 2012 in Dallas County and Johnson/McMullin combined got 5.8% in 2016. Those voters are very much up for grabs this time.

      7 replies 8 retweets 62 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Jeff B. is *BOX OFFICE POISON*‏Verified account @EsotericCD 7 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Timodc

      Assuming the economy holds up, my prediction (both from empirical observation and anecdotal data from non-Trump voters in 2016) is that it will snap back considerably in his direction in 2020. I think AZ/TX/GA/NC won't be as close in November on this trajectory. A big "if".

      4 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Tim Miller‏Verified account @Timodc 7 Feb 2020
      Replying to @EsotericCD

      I got out of the prediction game in 2016 but when I say up for grabs I mean it in the sense that I could absolutely see what you are suggesting play out...or the inverse. And it’s a big swing

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Jeff B. is *BOX OFFICE POISON*‏Verified account @EsotericCD 7 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Timodc

      Those "educated white suburbanite" Republican voters who deserted Trump in 2016? That's my milieu (yes, even though I'm a hardcore urbanite now). I know those people, they talk to me, and they're like "he's an intemperate jerk, but frankly it hasn't been as bad as I feared."

      6 replies 2 retweets 24 likes
      Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 7 Feb 2020
      Replying to @EsotericCD @Timodc

      Roughly the same here.

      8:05 AM - 7 Feb 2020
      • 7 Likes
      • KMaz Ducky John from FL G. Coronado David Mueller Scot Bertram Jon Thicc #GirlDad #BoyDad 🇻🇦🇺🇸
      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        1. Joel Hanes‏ @wolfpackofone92 7 Feb 2020
          Replying to @baseballcrank @EsotericCD @Timodc

          Its the same in rural places too.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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