But if you have to trust s model, it should definitely be the new one that tells one side exactly what they want to hear and then relentlessly promotes itself to that side
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I have spent so, so, so much of the past 18 years arguing against trusting models and projections fitting precisely that description.
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And this, my friends, is why you need to put enough variance in your model -- not just enough to account for sampling error, but enough to account for the unknown electoral shifts
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And this, btw, explains Nate Silver's success is 2016. All the models predicted a Hillary victory. But those models with the most variance showed the least certainty and therefore "won" 2016.
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